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Bayview to Acquire Guild Holdings in $1.3B All-Cash Deal: What Investors Need to Know

Guild Holdings (NYSE: GHLD) is set to go private in a $1.3 billion all-cash transaction, following a definitive agreement with a Bayview Asset Management–led fund. The deal values GHLD at $20.00 per share, representing a substantial 56% premium to its unaffected closing price on May 23, 2025.

The company also announced plans to issue a special dividend of up to $0.25/share in 2025, boosting potential returns for shareholders who remain through the payout.

Here’s what this means for investors, regulators, and merger arbitrage traders looking for yield in a tight-spread world.

Deal Terms at a Glance

• Buyer: Bayview Asset Management fund

• Target: Guild Holdings (GHLD)

• Deal Type: All-cash acquisition of remaining outstanding shares

• Price per Share: $20.00

• Premium to Unaffected Price: ~56% (per GHLD’s May 23, 2025 closing price)

• Equity Value: ~$1.3 billion

• Special Dividend: Up to $0.25/share in 2025

• Post-Deal: Guild to become a private, independent entity working closely with Lakeview Loan Servicing, also owned by Bayview
  
  

Why Bayview Wants Guild

Bayview already owns a piece of Guild — now it’s buying the rest. Why? Because this deal lets Bayview lock in a high-quality mortgage origination platform at a discount while public markets remain cold on housing.

By pairing Guild with Lakeview Loan Servicing, Bayview gets full-stack mortgage exposure:

• Origination → Guild

• Servicing → Lakeview

The combined entity can operate more efficiently, cycle-ready, and outside the short-term valuation pressures of public markets.

Regulatory Approval: Green Light Expected

There’s no meaningful antitrust or regulatory concern here.

• The U.S. mortgage market is highly fragmented and dominated by massive incumbents like Rocket Mortgage and Wells Fargo.

• Bayview + Guild = no market share threat, no systemic risk.

• CFPB, OCC, or HUD interference? Highly unlikely. This is a non-bank-to-non-bank transaction — standard practice in the housing sector.

Most objective outcome: ~95%+ odds of regulatory approval

Merger Arbitrage Math

• GHLD is trading at $19.76

• Cash offer is $20.00 → $0.24 spread = +1.21% gross return

• If special dividend hits, total = $20.25 → +2.48% total return

Leveraged Arbitrage: How to Juice the Yield

For active investors using margin or portfolio leverage, this deal offers a clean opportunity to boost returns — but only if you manage the timeline and risk.

Leverage	Return (Base)	Return w/ Dividend
1x (unlevered)	+1.21%	+2.48%
2x	+2.42%	+4.96%
3x	+3.63%	+7.44%
4x	+4.84%	+9.92%
5x	+6.05%	+12.4%

IRR If Deal Closes in 90 Days (Base Case)

• 1x leverage: ~4.9% annualized IRR

• 3x leverage: ~14.7% annualized IRR

• 5x leverage: ~24.5% annualized IRR
  (Ex-dividend kicker is delayed, so won’t compound in time-based IRR)

Real-World Considerations

• Regulatory risk? Minimal

• Main risk: Minority shareholder pushback (but unlikely to derail)

• Estimated deal failure downside: >30% drawdown

• Time risk: If deal drags past Q3, IRR compresses

• Dividend is optional/conditional — don’t over-leverage based on it alone–it’s hardly even a consideration of mine–the upside takes care of itself, and I focus tremendously on the downside.

Best setup: 2–3x leverage with short-duration capital targeting clean, low-friction carry

What to Watch Next

• SEC filings (merger agreement, fairness opinion)

• Special committee updates

• Confirmation of 2025 special dividend

• Timeline guidance for close (likely Q3 2025)

Final Takeaway

The Guild Holdings–Bayview deal is textbook clean merger arbitrage:

• Tight spread

• All-cash

• Low-risk

• High-probability close

• Optional dividend upside

It’s not a blockbuster — but it’s safe, scalable, and sharp. For merger arb funds, hedge funds, or even retail margin traders seeking defined risk/reward, this deal might be one of the most attractive setups of the summer.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.

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