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Why UnitedHealth Is Still More Likely Than Not to Close the Amedisys Deal

Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) investors are panicking again. A proposed 6.4% Medicare cut for 2026. A DOJ lawsuit. And headlines hinting that UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) might walk.

But here’s my view:

This deal is still more likely than not to close.

Allow me to break down why—factually, strategically, and politically—this merger isn’t dead. It’s just slogging through what basically every big UNH deal hits: headline heat, DOJ optics, and public posturing.

The Medicare Cut Sounds Huge—But It’s Not Final

Yes, CMS proposed a 6.4% cut to home health payments in 2026, which would slash ~$1.1 billion from the sector. Raymond James called it a “death knell” for the Amedisys deal.

But let’s remember:

• Historically, CMS never finalizes its worst-case proposals.

• Around 4% of this cut is a methodology tweak (PDGM reform), not a pure reimbursement slash.

• The other 5% is a retroactive clawback—and those are politically toxic during election years.

Expect intense industry lobbying, congressional pressure, and a likely scaled-back final rule closer to -2% to -3%.

The DOJ Isn’t Really Trying to Block—It’s Trying to Save Face

Yes, the DOJ sued to block the deal in late 2024. Yes, it rejected the first round of divestiture buyers. But context matters.

• The DOJ already pushed UnitedHealth and Amedisys to sell >120 locations to BrightSpring and Pennant.

• The agency’s continued pushback feels more like a “we beat UnitedHealth” PR move than a substantive antitrust argument.

• A supplemental mediation session is scheduled for Aug. 28, and talks with senior DOJ officials are still ahead.

This is not a full-scale block—it’s more of a drawn-out “make us look tough” dance. And UnitedHealth has danced this dance before.

Amedisys Already Paid to Be Here

Let’s not forget:

Amedisys already paid a break-up fee to walk away from its earlier $3.6B merger with Option Care Health (NASDAQ: OPCH) to pursue this UnitedHealth deal.

That’s real money. Walking away now—after eating the OPCH penalty and two years of scrutiny—would be an embarrassment and a fiduciary failure.

They want this deal done, not renegotiated again.

UnitedHealth Has a Track Record—and a Strategy

Here’s what nobody’s saying out loud:

UnitedHealth doesn’t lose deals.

• The DOJ fought hard against Change Healthcare. UnitedHealth still closed it.

• The DOJ fussed over LHC Group. UnitedHealth got it through.

• Even Signify Health (which CVS won) drew regulator attention. But everyone got their piece—after remedy talks.

The Amedisys deal is no different: high optics, low substance. UNH knows how to work the system, slowly but successfully.

Strategically, Amedisys gives UNH:

• Scaled home health and hospice reach

• A key asset in the Medicare Advantage ecosystem

• Vertical integration to match OptumCare’s growth

It fits Optum’s playbook to a tee. They didn’t just randomly spend two years and $millions on this.

The Deal Still Makes Financial Sense

Even if CMS cuts 2–3% off 2026 revenue, Amedisys is still a smart buy.

• Estimated 2026 revenue: ~$2B

• Deal value: $3.3B, or ~1.65x forward sales

• Valuation? Cheap for a strategic platform in a growth category

Especially when competitors like CVS and Humana are loading up on similar assets.

Bottom Line: More Likely Than Not to Close

The easy, clicky take is that the Amedisys–UNH deal is doomed. But here’s the data-backed reality:

CMS’s final rule will almost certainly soften
DOJ pushback is more optics than substance
Amedisys already paid to get here, thus wants to do everything in its practical power to get bought
UnitedHealth has a deal-closing playbook—and it works far more often than not
Strategically and financially, the logic still holds–this is a market UnitedHealth has time and time again pursued

Unless something truly unexpected breaks, this deal is still on track for late 2025 closure.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.

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