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Viking Global’s Q1 2025 Portfolio: A Tactical Bet on the Fed’s Next Move
What do you do when you think Jerome Powell is about to blink?
If you’re Viking Global, you load up on banks, buy into biotech, double down on AI, and sprinkle in consumer and industrial names like you’re building the ultimate soft-landing sundae.
That’s exactly what Viking did in Q1 2025.
Their portfolio is more than just a collection of tickers—it’s a clear, high-conviction bet on the Federal Reserve beginning to ease interest rates in late 2025 or early 2026. Whether it’s regional banks, long-duration growth tech, or emerging-market e-commerce, each name ties back to one big macro call: the cost of capital is coming down.
Let’s break down Viking’s biggest moves—and the rate-cut rationale behind each one.
Banks: When Rates Fall, Margins Rise
U.S. Bancorp (USB), Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Viking added significantly to all three in Q1. These financials benefit directly from the Fed cutting rates—loan growth improves, deposit pressure eases, and net interest margins expand.
- Schwab is also a winner from wealth inflows returning as volatility fades.
- BAC offers large-scale exposure to the U.S. consumer.
- USB gives you a regional recovery story.
Rate Cut Thesis: Lower short-term rates + stable long-term lending = margin improvement and multiple rerating.
Capital One (COF) – New Position
A big swing into consumer credit. Capital One thrives when financing gets cheaper—and that’s exactly what’s expected if the Fed eases by year-end.
Rate Cut Thesis: Credit card profitability rises as funding costs drop and delinquencies stabilize.
Deutsche Bank (DB) – New Position
This is a bet on global monetary policy coordination. If the Fed cuts, the ECB likely follows. That means better European liquidity, a weaker dollar, and better margins for European banks like DB.
Biotech: Long Duration + Lower Rates = Liftoff
BridgeBio (BBIO), Roivant (ROIV), Biomarin (BMRN)
Biotech stocks are notoriously rate-sensitive. Why? Their valuations are built on future cash flows from drugs still in the pipeline—so lower discount rates = higher present value.
Viking trimmed BBIO and ROIV (after big gains), but maintained large positions. It even added to Biomarin, a contrarian move as the stock dipped.
Rate Cut Thesis: Fed easing makes capital cheaper, valuations higher, and biotech M&A more likely.
Tech & AI: Duration Trades Get Their Mojo Back
Nvidia (NVDA) – Doubled Down
Viking increased its stake by 222%. This is the purest expression of belief in the AI capex cycle. Rate cuts = cheaper debt = more infrastructure buildouts = more GPUs sold.
Meta (META) – New Position
Meta’s ad revenue and AI investment story thrive in a soft-landing world with rising demand and falling capital costs. Viking bought in at just the right time.
Intuit (INTU), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT)
Amazon was modestly increased, Intuit held, and Microsoft was trimmed after strong gains. Together, they reflect a selective commitment to tech growth—but focused on names with real earnings and cash flow sensitivity to borrowing costs.
Rate Cut Thesis: Growth names with future-heavy earnings streams get a valuation tailwind when rates fall.
Consumer: Barbell of Resilience and Recovery
McDonald’s (MCD), Netflix (NFLX), Skechers (SKX)
These are Viking’s “sticky dollar” plays—brands consumers still use even in tough times. But when rates drop, they also benefit from better margins and international tailwinds.
- McDonald’s thrives on pricing power + real estate.
- Netflix benefits from ad-tier monetization and lower churn.
- Skechers captures value-driven trade-down trends while riding dollar weakness abroad.
Ross Stores (ROST), Nike (NKE), Carvana (CVNA)
These names are financing-sensitive retail bets. Viking is positioning for a rebound in discretionary spending and credit affordability:
- Ross: off-price leader during soft recessions.
- Nike: poised for rebound as inventories clear and China recovers.
- Carvana: huge bet on auto financing revival in a lower-rate environment.
Rate Cut Thesis: Fed easing lifts the consumer at the margin, especially those dependent on financing.
Industrials & CapEx Plays: Get Ready for Reinvestment
Boeing (BA), Fortive (FTV), Acuren (TIC), Regal Rexnord (RRX)
These are all bets on real economy investment rebounding once borrowing costs ease.
- Boeing: aerospace and defense recovery fueled by global spending and commercial jet orders.
- Fortive: industrial automation + healthcare tools = secular growth.
- Acuren: niche inspection and energy services, tied to oil & infrastructure.
- RRX: power transmission and mechanical parts = CapEx-sensitive.
Rate Cut Thesis: Lower interest rates unlock infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing reinvestment.
Global & Emerging Markets: The Fed Moves the World
Sea Ltd (SE), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Flutter (FLUT)
These positions all benefit from dollar weakness and global capital flows that pick up after a Fed pivot.
- Sea Ltd: Singapore-based gaming, e-commerce, and fintech.
- TSM: Still the backbone of global chip production.
- Flutter: A play on the U.S. sports betting boom + resilient UK/Ireland market.
Rate Cut Thesis: As the dollar weakens and risk appetite returns, emerging markets and international names become far more attractive.
Bonus Defensive Anchors
UnitedHealth (UNH), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Visa (V), Progressive (PGR)
Even as Viking positions for rate cuts, they hold some ballast. These are high-cash-flow, low-volatility names that can weather volatility if the Fed delays. Hedge Logic: You don’t want to be 100% long beta if Powell changes his mind.
Final Take: Viking’s Portfolio = Rate Cut Readiness
This isn’t a haphazard collection of stocks. It’s a macro-informed, rate-sensitive portfolio designed for one central belief:
The Fed will begin gradually cutting rates in late 2025 or early 2026—and Viking Global wants to be early.
From regional banks and AI chips to used cars and biotech pipelines, nearly every Q1 move reflects the same thesis:
Rates down = margins up, multiples higher, and risk assets re-rated.
If Jerome Powell starts loosening the screws, Viking’s already in position.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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