This article is sponsored by College Readiness Consulting!
Buffett’s Q2 2025 Buys: Why Berkshire Is Quietly Loading Up Ahead of Fed Easing
If you thought Warren Buffett was just sitting on his mountain of Apple stock and cherry Coke, think again. Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 2025 13F filing revealed a batch of brand-new positions: UnitedHealth (UNH), Nucor (NUE), Lennar (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), and Allegion (ALLE).
At first glance, the lineup looks a little random—health insurance, steel, homebuilders, billboards, and industrial locks—but the backdrop of tariffs, inflation, and the Fed tip-toeing toward rate cuts in late 2025 and into 2026 makes the strategy much clearer. Buffett is once again doing what he does best: buying despair before the Fed buys relief.
The Economic Backdrop: Tariffs, Sticky Inflation, and a Waiting Fed
- Tariffs: Trade tensions have raised input costs across manufacturing and construction. Short-term pain for margins, but long-term support for domestic producers.
- Inflation: Hovering around 2.7–3.1%—above the Fed’s 2% target but trending lower. Not runaway, but sticky.
- The Fed: Rates remain at 4.25–4.50%. Markets expect cuts to start around September 2025, with additional easing into 2026.
In short: growth is cooling, inflation is hanging on, and rate cuts are on the horizon. That’s the kind of setup Buffett loves—cheap entry points in solid businesses before the cycle turns.
UnitedHealth (UNH): Buying Panic, Not Hype
UnitedHealth has been a dividend machine for decades, but lately it’s been hammered. Rising medical costs, sicker patient pools, political scrutiny, and even federal investigations spooked investors. Add a messy CEO transition, and suddenly the best-run insurer in America was priced like it had forgotten how to count premiums.
For Buffett, that’s the definition of a deep-value layup: buy the giant when everyone else is panicking. If utilization rates stabilize and inflation cools, UNH goes back to minting cash.
Nucor (NUE): Steel Yourself for Tariff Tailwinds
Buffett loves businesses that benefit from policy without depending on it. Nucor fits the bill. As tariffs push foreign steel out, domestic producers like Nucor gain pricing power. Layer on infrastructure spending, reshoring, and the simple fact that steel is the skeleton of the economy, and you’ve got an industrial play with durability.
This is Buffett putting money into American muscle—not all out there, but irreplaceable.
Lennar (LEN) & D.R. Horton (DHI): Betting on Housing’s Second Wind
High mortgage rates throttled housing demand, but that’s exactly why Buffett is early. When the Fed finally cuts, affordability improves and buyers rush back in. Homebuilders like Lennar and D.R. Horton will be the first beneficiaries of a rate-cut cycle.
Buffett’s move here says it plainly: housing will be the canary that sings when easing begins.
Lamar Advertising (LAMR): Billboards Love Cheap Money
Lamar Advertising might look like an ad business, but in practice, it’s a real estate play with billboards stapled on. Like REITs, it lives and dies by financing costs. High rates squeeze margins, while easing lowers borrowing costs and boosts asset values.
With cuts on deck, LAMR is poised to shine. Outdoor ads are durable (you can’t skip a billboard), inflation-resistant, and now ready to benefit from a financing tailwind.
Allegion (ALLE): When Buildings Boom, Locks Follow
Allegion makes locks, doors, and security systems—the unglamorous hardware behind every new office, apartment, and warehouse. Easing rates mean more commercial and residential building projects get financed. More buildings mean more doors, which means more Allegion products getting installed.
It’s Buffett’s kind of industrial: boring, necessary, and levered to the credit cycle.
Why These Picks Fit the “Easing + Inflation” Playbook
- Tariffs hurt short term but help domestic producers long term. That’s NUE and ALLE.
- Inflation normalizing and rate cuts revive demand. That’s LEN, DHI, and LAMR.
- Healthcare panic is temporary. That’s UNH.
- Buffett loves despair. He buys when Wall Street yawns or panics, and he’s patient enough to wait for fundamentals to resurface.
The Final Word
Buffett’s Q2 2025 buys aren’t scattershot—they’re strategic. He’s betting that:
- Healthcare sentiment will recover (UNH).
- Domestic steel gains from tariffs (NUE).
- Housing roars back on easing (LEN, DHI).
- Billboards become rate-cut winners (LAMR).
- Commercial construction fuels lock demand (ALLE).
Together, these moves form a classic Buffett play: buy quality and cyclicals at the bottom of the cycle, wait for the Fed to hand you tailwinds.
It’s not flashy AI moonshots or speculative crypto plays—it’s Buffett being Buffett. And history suggests that’s exactly why it’ll work.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
© 2025 MacroHint.com. All rights reserved.