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“Dear Fellow Degenerates of the Disinflation Era”
(A Highly Serious, Slightly Unhinged Investor Letter for the Remainder of 2025)
Dear Readers,
Well, well, well. It finally happened. Jerome Powell—our nation’s most reluctant DJ—has started easing the beat. The Fed is trimming rates like a barber with shaky hands, and suddenly Wall Street thinks it’s Coachella again.
Now, before you go full FOMO and start buying meme SPACs or “AI for cats” IPOs, let’s have a rational (but slightly caffeinated) talk about how to survive the remainder of 2025 without torching your net worth.
This is my semi-professional, semi-chaotic macro love letter to the stocks I’m riding into year-end—and why, under these slowly falling rates and stubbornly expensive tacos, they still look like the smartest party guests in the room.
Macro Mood Board: “Gentle Disinflation With a Side of Vibes”
- Inflation? Cooling. Still flirty, but no longer ghosting the Fed.
- Rates? Drifting down like an Air Jordan balloon at halftime.
- Consumers? Split between “treat yourself” and “please, God, not another car repair.”
- Corporates? Still spending on AI servers, grid upgrades, and ways to replace Dave from accounting with software.
- Geopolitics? Everyone’s cranky, but defense and energy budgets keep flowing.
In short: it’s not 2021 mania, it’s 2025 realism—and that’s fine. You don’t need a rocket emoji to make money when you’ve got companies that actually, you know, earn it.
My Portfolio Type: The “Don’t Fight the Fed, But Also Don’t Get Reckless” Fund
AI, Power, and Purity (24%)
Because apparently the future runs on electricity, cleanliness, and semiconductors that cost more than a yacht.
- ENTG: Sells the cleaning supplies for the AI gold rush.
- ETN: Electrifying the world, one transformer shortage at a time.
- PWR: Builds the grid everyone suddenly remembered we need.
This is my “can’t code an algorithm, but can invest in the people who sell to Nvidia” bucket.
Energy Security (18%)
Natural gas isn’t dead; it just rebranded as “transitional energy” like a pop star after rehab.
- EQT: America’s gas king—powered by discipline, not debt.
- WMB: Collects tolls on the nation’s energy highway.
- LNG: Literally exports freedom (and cash flow) in liquefied form.
These are my “I’ll still be rich if OPEC wakes up cranky” plays.
Infrastructure & Real Assets (18%)
Because the world keeps building things, breaking things, and rebuilding them again.
- MLM: Crushed rocks, steady profits.
- URI: Rents out everything short of common sense.
- CX: Cement—that’s it, that’s the tweet.
Concrete may not be sexy, but it compounds. Literally.
The Maintenance Economy (11%)
Consumers may skip luxury handbags, but they’ll sure pay to keep the Camry running.
- VVV: Oil changes are eternal.
- GPC: Car parts for when you can’t afford a new one.
- HD: Because houses need fixing even when vibes are bad.
My “boring is the new alpha” segment.
Healthcare & Insurance (14%)
Human bodies and actuarial tables—two things that never go out of style.
- OPCH: Home infusion = cheaper, cozier healthcare.
- UNH: Managed-care juggernaut that somehow manages to make margins look sexy.
- ACGL / KNSL / ASIC: Writing policies while the world gets riskier—what’s not to love?
The ultimate “people still age even in recessions” hedge.
Opportunity & Chaos Sleeve (15%)
These are the names I keep for when rate cuts turn into rate slides.
- CCCS: AI claims automation—insurers’ secret weapon against chaos.
- SPGI: The Fed sneezes and these guys print new indices.
- ADBE: Because design work still needs actual humans (for now).
- SKYW: Quietly flying over the ruins of smaller airlines.
- ILMN / TMO: Betting that genetics and lab science come back into vogue once biotech gets its groove again.
Basically, the “if the economy doesn’t implode, I look like a genius” allocation.
The Macro Recipe I’m Cooking With
Here’s my mental kitchen timer for late 2025:
- Fed cutting slowly: Stocks with real cash flow and modest leverage shine.
- Energy tight but not spiking: EQT and WMB print quietly.
- AI and electrification = structural capex: ENTG, ETN, and PWR keep eating.
- Housing meh, maintenance strong: VVV, GPC, HD just keep ringing the register.
- Healthcare steady, insurance minting: OPCH and ACGL are the responsible adults in this portfolio’s group chat.
The “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?” Section
Because every investor letter needs one.
- Recession: Trim URI/MLM, hug WMB/UNH tighter.
- Energy price crash: EQT sulks, but ETN/PWR/ENTG keep the lights on.
- AI bubble deflates: ENTG keeps selling cleaning fluid even if the hype fades.
- Fed panics: I’ll panic too, but in a classy, asset-allocated way.
The Spirit of the Thing
I’m not trying to beat the market with moonshots. I’m trying to build a portfolio that can take a Fed cut, a headline shock, or a mild existential crisis—and still grind out compounding returns.
It’s the investing equivalent of eating your vegetables… except these vegetables yield dividends, have pricing power, and build the electrical grid for the AI apocalypse.
Final Word
So yes, my dear readers, as we coast into Q4 2025, rates are finally easing, inflation’s finally calming, and investors are finally remembering that fundamentals actually exist.
My portfolio isn’t built for hype. It’s built for the moment we’re in:
A world powered by semiconductors, stabilized by energy infrastructure, maintained by boring businesses, and healed by home-based healthcare.
I’ll keep you posted if Powell throws a curveball—or if I finally find an AI small-cap that doesn’t burn cash faster than a Tesla battery fire.
Until then: stay hedged, stay hydrated, and remember—there’s no greater alpha than not doing dumb stuff.
Yours in moderate leverage and excessive coffee,
Michael
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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