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Bolsonaro, Beef, and 50% Tariffs: Who Wins and Loses if Trump Taxes Brazil Into Next Week
What Happened?
Trump’s trade war just got a South American sequel—here’s what it means for your stocks, your steak, and your sanity.
President Trump just announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing the criminal trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Yes, really. A tariff… over a trial–we are living in interesting times, ladies and gents.
This isn’t your typical trade spat over soybeans or steel. This is part global chess match, part political loyalty test, and part revenge fanfiction.
And if you think this won’t rattle markets, check again—Brazil’s currency tanked 2%, stocks shivered, and investors started asking “Wait… what do we even import from Brazil?” (Spoiler: quite a bit.)
The MacroMath
- Total U.S.–Brazil Trade (2024): $92 billion
- Imports from Brazil: $42.3 billion
- Trump Tariff Level: 50% on everything from iron ore to instant coffee
- Reason Given: Unfair treatment of Bolsonaro and censorship of U.S. tech firms
Now let’s break this down the MacroHint way—funny, accurate, and fully tradable.
LOSERS: Stocks That’ll Probably Cry in Portuguese
Embraer (NYSE: ERJ)
Brazil’s jetmaker of choice. Exports planes directly to the U.S.
- Planes + 50% tariffs = uh oh.
- Stock already dipped post-announcement.
- U.S. carriers like American, JetBlue, and Alaska? Not thrilled.
Petrobras (NYSE: PBR)
Brazil’s national oil giant.
- Oil is global, but PBR is local.
- U.S. refiners and petrochemical buyers may turn elsewhere.
- Political pressure just adds volatility to its already caffeinated chart.
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) and Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU)
Big fintech and e-commerce exposure to Brazil = indirect headwinds.
- Not directly tariffed, but capital flow and FX risk = bearish tilt.
- Brazil turmoil = fintech fatigue.
Brazilian Steel & Aluminum Exporters (CSN, Gerdau)
Already fighting quotas. 50% tariffs are like getting fouled after fouling out.
WINNERS: Buy These If Trump Goes Full Tariff Mode
U.S. Steelmakers (X), Nucor (NUE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
- Brazilian metal out, American metal in.
- Add a few coal tweets and it’s 2017 again.
U.S. Auto Parts & Components Firms
- Anything Brazilian gets pricier.
- U.S. suppliers of tires, brake parts, or interiors get a bump.
- Magna (MGA), Lear (LEA), maybe even Goodyear (GT).
U.S. Beef & Poultry Giants (Tyson, Hormel)
- Brazil’s a top meat exporter.
- If prices rise, U.S. producers might win (until we cry at Costco).
U.S. Coffee Roasters (Peet’s, Smuckers, Starbucks Suppliers)
- Brazilian beans go up in price = opportunity for other origins
- Vietnam, Colombia, Central America might get more orders
Wildcards to Watch
- iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ): Down 2%. Will likely stay volatile.
- Real estate developers in Florida: Fewer Brazilian buyers might show up.
- Retailers like Costco, Target: Watch for margin compression on imports like coffee, meat, and ethanol-based products.
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about Brazil. It’s about how interesting and personal Trump’s trade doctrine has become. Unlike past tariffs aimed at trade imbalances, this one directly cites a political ally’s legal case and free speech fights involving X and Truth Social.
Translation: If your country puts Trump’s friends on trial, your exporters better duck.
This isn’t trade war 2.0—it’s Trade War: The Revenge of the BRICS.
My Takeaway
“If tariffs go political, investing gets tribal.”
We’re entering a world where geopolitics, legal trials, and tweet threads all influence what’s in your portfolio—and your fridge.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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