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If I Were CEO of Molina Right Now… I’d Move Fast and Act Cleaner Than Centene
When the risk pool tsunami hits your neighbor’s house, don’t wait for it to flood yours.
On July 2, Centene (CNC) dropped a bomb:
“Our ACA members are sicker than expected. We’re pulling guidance. We’re down $1.8 billion.”
Wall Street’s response?
Sell Centene. Sell Molina. Sell everything touching Medicaid.
Molina’s stock (MOH) promptly fell ~22% — not because it said anything wrong, but because it might be next, as it operates in nearly identical Medicaid and ACA markets as Centene.
If I were running Molina today, I’d walk into the boardroom and say:
“We’re not Centene. Let’s keep it that way.”
Step 1: Audit Everything Before the Street Does
Right now, institutional investors assume Molina is sitting on the same ACA & Medicaid margin time bomb as Centene.
Even if we aren’t — perception is fatal.
My move?
- Launch a full-blown internal claims audit across ACA and Medicaid segments
- Identify hot zones by state, member type, and service category
- Stress test actuarial assumptions with 2025 YTD data
- Publish pre-earnings transparency decks to guide investor expectations
This isn’t about hiding the mess — it’s about showing you know where the mess is and have a mop in hand.
Step 2: Don’t Overpromise. Ever Again.
Molina’s margins have always been a little cleaner and tighter than Centene’s.
But this isn’t the time to flex. It’s the time to lower expectations proactively, even if things look okay for now.
What I’d do:
- Provide conservative Q3 and FY2025 ranges
- Build in margin buffers assuming elevated utilization and redetermination churn
- Tell investors: “We’re planning for worst-case risk. Anything better is upside.”
Why? Because in this market, being early with bad news makes you the adult in the room and likely preserves your market cap to a degree.
Step 3: Drop Anchor in Your Strongest States
Molina’s footprint is more selective than Centene’s. Use that.
The goal now? Fortify margins in your best states. Exit or renegotiate the rest.
I’d:
- Double down on California, Texas, Michigan, and Washington
- Review each contract for margin leakage from specialty drugs, behavioral health, or provider rate inflation
- Pause all state expansion bids unless fully risk-adjusted
Remember: Growth ≠ good if it brings bad pools with it.
Step 4: Start Looking a Lot More Like Elevance
No offense, but Molina can’t become UNH overnight.
But you know who’s more realistic? Elevance Health (ELV) — a cleaner, more diversified payer with strong commercial and Medicaid balance.
My 2026–2030 Molina plan:
- Build dual-eligible offerings with care coordination services
- Acquire small, regional care delivery assets (home health, behavioral, chronic care management)
- Slowly introduce employer-based (commercial) products to rebalance mix
If Medicaid remains 80%+ of the book by 2027, we’re toast the next time CMS sneezes–it’s currently around 83%.
Step 5: Say Something Before They Assume Everything
Centene’s mistake wasn’t just being wrong. It was being quiet, then suddenly very loud.
As Molina CEO, I’d be the opposite.
Next steps:
- Host a mid-quarter update on risk pool data
- Publish a “Molina vs. Centene” territory and service (risk) comparison slide deck
- Highlight operating discipline, claims accuracy, and contract selectivity
We’re not bragging — we’re proving a negative. That we’re not secretly a worse version of Centene.
TL;DR: If I Were Molina’s CEO Right Now…
- I’d get ahead of any ACA/Medicaid margin bombs before the Street assumes them
- Guide conservatively, act visibly, and over-communicate
- Exit unprofitable contracts while fortifying top-margin states
- Begin diversifying away from pure government payer status
- Channel Elevance — not Envision
Final Word:
Molina didn’t do anything wrong today. But markets are guilty until proven innocent — especially in Medicaid.
So if I were Molina’s CEO, I’d treat this moment like a preemptive trial… and walk into the courtroom with 200 pages of receipts.
Because in healthcare, optics matter just as much as outcomes.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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