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Michael Burry’s Big Healthcare Bet: Why Scion Just Bought Molina (MOH)
When Michael Burry—the contrarian investor immortalized in The Big Short—makes a new move, Wall Street listens. And in his latest Q3 2025 13F filing, one position stood out like a quiet but powerful signal: a brand-new stake in Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH), worth nearly $24 million.
At first glance, Molina might not look like the kind of explosive trade Burry’s famous for. It’s not a meme stock, an AI bubble short, or a headline-grabbing big tech bet. But that’s exactly what makes it so interesting. In true Burry fashion, this investment isn’t about hype—it’s about math, policy, and timing.
What Molina Healthcare Actually Does
Molina Healthcare is a Fortune 500 managed-care company specializing in Medicaid and Medicare health plans. In simple terms, Molina runs private health insurance programs for low-income Americans, under contracts with state governments.
Think of it like this: the federal government funds Medicaid, but states often outsource the administrative and cost-management work to private insurers. Molina steps in, manages those members efficiently, and earns predictable fees based on enrollment.
This is a low-drama, high-recurring-revenue business. When unemployment rises or states expand Medicaid coverage, Molina’s membership—and its revenue—goes up.
Why Burry Bought In Now
1. Trump’s Return Favors Privatized Healthcare
With President Trump back in office, his administration is expected to deregulate federal healthcare oversight, granting states more autonomy over Medicaid programs. Historically, that’s been a goldmine for companies like Molina, Centene (CNC), and Elevance (ELV).
Fewer federal rules mean states can expand managed-care partnerships faster, allowing Molina to win new contracts and streamline costs. This creates margin expansion without risky acquisitions—the exact type of operational leverage Burry loves.
2. A Counter-Cyclical, Cash-Rich Play
Most hedge funds are still chasing tech and AI names, but Burry’s portfolio this quarter is a classic “barbell” strategy—shorting market euphoria while owning real, cash-flow-heavy defensives.
Healthcare, and especially Medicaid management, is one of the few sectors that actually benefits from economic stress.
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If unemployment rises → more Medicaid enrollment → Molina’s revenue climbs.
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If inflation persists → Molina’s contracts often adjust for cost increases.
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If growth slows → the company’s predictable payments look more attractive to investors.
In other words, Molina wins in a recession and survives during expansion.
3. Rock-Solid Fundamentals and Efficiency
Molina is known as the leanest operator in the industry.
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Its administrative cost ratio is about 7%, nearly two points better than larger rival Centene.
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It has minimal debt, strong free cash flow, and operates in 20+ states with disciplined underwriting.
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Its customer base—state governments—is as creditworthy as it gets.
That makes Molina a “sleep-well-at-night” stock in an increasingly volatile market.
4. Political and Demographic Tailwinds
The U.S. is aging. More people are retiring, and Medicaid enrollment remains near record highs post-pandemic. At the same time, healthcare costs continue to rise, pushing states toward outsourcing efficiency to private firms.
Burry’s long game here isn’t about quarterly headlines—it’s about multi-year demographic inevitability. Molina’s addressable market only grows with time.
Why This Fits Burry’s Playbook
Michael Burry has a consistent pattern:
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He shorts euphoria (AI, meme stocks, housing bubbles).
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He buys predictable cash flow that others ignore.
His Molina position checks all his classic boxes:
-Underfollowed sector
-Policy tailwinds under Trump
-Deflationary business model (cost control + government contracts)
-Counter-cyclical performance during downturns
This is the same kind of non-consensus, high-conviction trade that made him famous. He’s not betting on explosive growth—he’s betting on stability when everyone else is buying chaos.
The Takeaway
Michael Burry’s new Molina Healthcare stake is a policy and macro bet disguised as a healthcare trade.
He’s wagering that the U.S. will continue to privatize the administration of public healthcare, that fiscal tightening will expand Medicaid enrollment, and that investors will eventually rotate out of overhyped tech into durable, cash-flow-heavy names.
While most traders are chasing chips and chatbots, Burry’s building a position in something far more enduring—a company that quietly compounds through any political cycle.
For a man who made his name predicting collapses, it’s telling that this time, he’s betting on something built to last.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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