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Rob Citrone’s Q1 2025 Portfolio: A Global Macro Map of Conviction
Robert Citrone isn’t your average long-only equity manager—he’s one of the original Tiger Cubs and a macro specialist who’s not afraid to take concentrated, unconventional macro bets. His Q1 2025 13F shows a globally diversified, high-conviction portfolio that weaves together Latin America, hard assets, distressed debt recovery, AI infrastructure, and tactical U.S. exposure across financials, energy, and utilities.
As markets adjusted to late-stage tightening, soft-landing hope, rising populism, and rate volatility, Citrone’s Discovery Capital built a playbook around asymmetric upside and credit-anchored optionality.
Here’s how the portfolio breaks down—and why these moves made sense in early 2025.
1. Argentina and LatAm: GGAL, VIST, AMX, GFL, CX, TV
- Why now: As Argentina’s Milei government pushed ahead with dollarization and fiscal shock therapy, Citrone saw a bottom forming in key Argentine equities like Grupo Galicia (GGAL), Vista Oil (VIST), and Televisa (TV).
- AMX (América Móvil) added Mexican and South American telecom exposure with FX and rate optionality, also a play on the rotation out of American assets and into emerging market names.
- Cemex (CX) added a global infrastructure angle at discounted multiples, also stood to benefit from President Trump’s trade disputes with China, with more global companies having to reposition their supply chains closer to the United States–quasi-reshoring in this case leads to more demand for Mexican cement
- Macro logic: The LatAm rebound trade—rising commodity exports, currency reforms, and fiscal stabilization—offered asymmetric upside, especially after years of discounting.
2. Credit/Recovery Plays: Amentum, GEO Group, Hertz, SLM, HTZ, METC, JRVR
- Why now: These positions reflect a contrarian bet on distressed or misunderstood credit names.
- Amentum is a recent spinoff from private equity with stable defense and government contracting revenue, was strapped with a lot of debt that it could service well under the coming rate-decline environment.
- GEO Group plays the immigration/security wave amid Trump’s resurgence.
- Hertz (HTZ) and SLM Corp show bets on credit cycle bottoming and consumer leverage recovery.
- Ramaco (METC) is a coal play tied to hard asset production with strong cash flows, and on a more situational note, the company is putting together America’s largest rare earths mining facility ever.
- Macro logic: In a world where real yields rise and weak links break, these are leveraged survivors poised to rebound.
3. Financials and Rate Sensitivity: Discover, Credicorp, Schwab, HDFC Bank
- Why now: Financials were deeply discounted entering 2025. Discover’s 135% position increase reflects a bet on post-acquisition revaluation (following its merger with Capital One).
- Credicorp (BAP) offers Peruvian rate sensitivity with emerging market tailwinds.
- HDFC Bank captures India’s consumer credit and digitization boom.
- Macro logic: Banks with strong deposit bases, cross-border operations, or credit expansion benefit from a declining rate curve and global reflation.
4. U.S. Health & Utility Rotation: UNH, AEP, ETR
- UnitedHealth (UNH) was a new, large-cap defensive entry—likely a response to volatility, offering stable earnings and dividend reliability, not a line of business that is subjected to the federal funds rate.
- Macro logic: Health and utilities play well during disinflationary transition periods, offering consistent cash generation and yield support if rates fall.
5. Infrastructure & Government Tech: Parsons, Amentum, Loar, StandardAero
- Why now: Amentum, Parsons, and Loar Holdings reflect confidence in government-backed infrastructure and aerospace services.
- Macro logic: These are long-cycle, contract-backed businesses with pricing power and visibility—especially relevant in an election year and rearmament cycle.
6. Clean Energy + Resource Leverage: First Solar, FCX, GLNG, AEM
- First Solar (FSLR) remained a favored name, boosted 80% as IRA tailwinds and backlog strength continued.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) added exposure to copper and gold—key industrial and inflation hedge metals.
- Golar LNG (GLNG) captured LNG volatility and European gas exposure.
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) offered gold exposure for risk + inflation hedging.
- Macro logic: Hard assets + energy transformation = a portfolio hedge against both inflation and volatility.
7. AI, Semis, and Cloud Infrastructure: Nebius, Astera Labs, Iris Energy, Applovin, Snap, Meta
- Why now: These are the “picks and shovels” of AI and data infrastructure.
- Nebius (Yandex cloud spinout) and Astera Labs are datacenter-centric.
- Iris Energy mines Bitcoin using renewable sources—leveraged crypto infrastructure play.
- Applovin, Snap, Meta add monetizable social and ad reach in AI-enhanced targeting environments.
- Macro logic: Don’t chase Nvidia. Buy the undervalued layers of the data stack, and these will all also most certainly benefit from the upcoming Fed easing.
8. Consumer Rebound & Real Estate: Brinker, Compass, Pinterest, Chewy
- Why now: These names offer high operating leverage to a consumer recovery, with Brinker (EAT) and Compass (COMP) benefiting from real estate and hospitality stabilization.
- Pinterest and Chewy signal consumer digital channels rebounding in a lower-rate world.
- Macro logic: Margin-challenged, high-beta names bounce first when rate cuts finally arrive.
9. Emerging Market and Tactical Global Bets: EWA, TKC, AGRO, ROOT
- EWA (Australia ETF) adds rate-stabilized commodity exposure.
- Turkcell (TKC) and Adecoagro (AGRO) expand EM telecom and agriculture footprints.
- Root (ROOT) is a bet on embedded fintech innovation in insurance.
- Macro logic: These are small, tactical bets on countries and companies that stand to benefit from global dislocation realignment.
Final Takeaway: Citrone’s Macro Mosaic
In Q1 2025, Rob Citrone wasn’t betting on one theme—he was mapping out a macro regime shift.
His portfolio combined:
- Argentina and LatAm reform and emerging markets trades
- Credit and debt-hedged equity upside
- AI and infrastructure innovation
- Utilities and health for ballast
- Hard assets and real economy rotation
It’s not about timing the market. It’s about positioning across dislocations—and letting global volatility do the heavy lifting.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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