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Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) Is Skiing Into Trouble—Here’s How They Fix It
Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) used to be the king of the mountain. Now it’s the skier who got stuck on the chairlift with one boot off, wondering what happened to all the powder.
The stock has quietly dropped ~57% since its 2021 peak, and it’s still down ~17% from where it was five years ago. That’s right—while the rest of the market has recovered, Vail is face-planting in slow motion.
So what went wrong? And more importantly…
How can Vail Resorts dig out of this icy mess?
Let’s shred through the problems—and carve out a rescue plan.
Problem 1: The Epic Pass Isn’t So Epic Anymore
The Epic Pass used to be the gold rush of ski marketing. One pass, dozens of resorts, a baller Instagram caption guaranteed.
But in recent years, it’s been a victim of its own success:
- Overcrowding at marquee mountains like Vail, Park City, and Whistler
- Declining skier satisfaction—long lines, booked-out parking, and too little fresh snow
- Local backlash in towns like Crested Butte and Tahoe, where infrastructure can’t keep up with Epic-induced tourism spikes
Result: What once felt like an exclusive membership now feels like a Costco on Presidents’ Day weekend.
Fix:
Vail needs to re-segment the Epic Pass:
- Add tiered blackout dates for different pass levels
- Cap daily skier volume at high-traffic resorts
- Incentivize weekday or off-peak visits with dynamic pricing (a la Hopper or Uber surge pricing)
Optional tagline: “Still Epic. Now With Less Elbowing.”
Problem 2: Lodging Revenue Is Flatlining
MTN owns or manages dozens of high-end hotels and condos, but the “luxury ski trip” demographic is shrinking faster than a snowbank in July.
Why?
- Sticky interest rates and inflation have crushed upper-middle-class discretionary budgets
- International travel reopened, and Vail’s U.S. properties can’t compete with a $1,500 Euro ski trip with better food
- Most of Vail’s real estate isn’t cool anymore—it’s pricey, outdated, and overloaded with resort fees
Fix:
Time to rebrand some properties as mid-tier “affordable luxury” and ride the Aspen-to-Ikon crowd shift. Think: clean, modern, fewer fake fireplaces, more in-room WiFi that works.
Also: bundle hotel nights with Epic Pass perks and limited lift-line fast passes. That combo = yield and loyalty.
Problem 3: Summer Is Eating MTN’s Margins
The snowpack has melted. Seasons, to some, feel shorter. Vail just posted a 15% YoY decline in skier visits last quarter, citing—you guessed it—“weather variability.”
This is no longer a freak event. It’s structural.
Fix:
MTN must:
- Double down on summer and shoulder-season revenue (mountain biking, hiking, weddings, yoga retreats, etc.)
- Push deeper into year-round resort management tech, maybe even through acquisition
- Explore low-altitude investments in South America or New Zealand to hedge snow risk
A “global” Epic Pass with ski options across hemispheres could become Vail’s new flagship product.
Problem 4: Wall Street Hates the Business Model Right Now
Let’s be honest—MTN’s margin structure is weird:
- 70% of lift revenue is pre-sold via Epic, limiting dynamic yield
- Lodging is low margin and capital intensive
- Snowmaking, insurance, and staffing costs are up
- And worst of all… Vail still pays a dividend (?!)
Fix:
Ditch the dividend, reinvest in tech + guest experience, and do a one-time Epic Refresh marketing campaign that actually focuses on operations, not just buzzwords.
Also: Hire a CFO who understands that Wall Street likes predictable free cash flow, not just pretty mountains.
Bonus Idea: A Skier Loyalty Credit Card
Vail is missing one of the easiest financial plays ever: a branded credit card.
Think: Epic Points.
- Spend $1, earn lift line skips
- Spend $5K, get a free room night
- Book trips via app, get Amex-style perks
Every hotel and airline has figured this out. Time for Vail to join the credit-card capitalism Olympics.
Final Run: Vail’s Future Isn’t Hopeless—It’s Just Icy
Vail Resorts still owns some of the most iconic ski destinations in North America. Its brand isn’t broken—but its execution is.
If Vail wants to get back on top, it needs to:
- Re-segment the Epic Pass
- Rethink its real estate and lodging approach
- Diversify away from weather risk
- Win back Wall Street with margin discipline and smart reinvestment
- And maybe—just maybe—give skiers a reason to believe that “Epic” still means something.
Because right now?
It feels less like Epic Pass and more like Epic Mess.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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