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Why FICO Stock Went Absolutely Nuts—And Why It’s Catching Its Breath in 2025
Let’s talk about the company that basically decides your financial worth in three digits — and why Wall Street couldn’t get enough of it during the recent inflation years.
I’m talking about FICO (Fair Isaac Corp, ticker: FICO) — the unsung king of credit scores, risk models, and quietly ruling your mortgage rate fate.
Between 2022 and 2024?
FICO stock skyrocketed nearly 200%.
Since early 2025?
It’s been more like a polite exhale.
Here’s why.
The Boom: When Rates Rose, FICO Got Richer
FICO is like the bouncer at Club Credit. You want a loan? He checks the list. And in the high-rate, high-risk post-COVID economy, lenders became obsessed with credit quality.
That meant:
- More demand for FICO Scores
- More demand for fraud tools
- More banks paying up for risk modeling software
FICO doesn’t just sell scores. It sells recurring, high-margin SaaS analytics to banks. And banks, in an uncertain macro world, paid top dollar.
Credit got tighter → banks leaned harder on FICO → investors fell in love
Oh, and did I mention pricing power?
FICO hiked prices and shrunk reliance on the Big 3 bureaus. That was Wall Street music.
The Cooldown: Why 2025 Is More “Pause” Than “Panic”
By early 2025, a few things changed:
- The Fed pivoted.
- As interest rate cuts loomed, banks started easing up.
- That meant slightly less urgency in buying risk management firepower.
- FICO’s own price had gotten… spicy.
- We’re talking a 70-80x forward earnings multiple.
- Great company? Yes. Great value at that price? Hardly.
- Growth normalized.
- Still solid — but no longer riding the macro panic tailwind.
- And when growth slows while you’re priced like a rocket ship… gravity happens–but I’d still say that this company will benefit from prospective gradual rate declines, so long as these are part of a soft-landing equation.
Investors Mistake FICO for a “Fintech” — But It’s Really a Tollbooth
FICO is less like a sleek fintech and more like a digital monopoly on trust.
Every loan. Every mortgage. Every credit card.
Someone’s paying FICO to assess the risk.
They’re the digital IRS of your credit life — quietly collecting their cut.
Should You Buy the Dip?
FICO is still:
- A near-monopoly in the score space
- A high-margin software business
- Asset-light and insanely profitable
The recent pullback? It’s not about the business being worse. It’s about expectations catching up to reality.
If the stock keeps cooling into a far more reasonable earnings multiple range…
You’ll want to re-run your score.
My Take
FICO soared when risk ruled.
Now it’s cooling down—not crashing, just digesting.
This isn’t the end of the FICO story. It’s probably just that chapter where the hero drinks water before sprinting again.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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