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Why Lamb Weston Stock Has Gone Cold: The Great Fry Rut of 2025
Once the golden child of your favorite fast-food drive-thru, Lamb Weston (NYSE: LW) is now more like the soggy fry at the bottom of the bag.
What happened?
This was the company that literally owns the French fry game—a global frozen potato powerhouse slinging spuds to McDonald’s, Wendy’s, school cafeterias, and airlines alike.
But lately?
Lamb Weston stock has been deep-fried and left out to cool.
Let’s explore the crispy truth behind the rut.
1. People Are Eating Fewer Fries (Tragic, I Know)
Turns out, when wallets get tight, so do fry portions.
- Consumers are downtrading to smaller sizes.
- Restaurants are trimming costs by serving fewer potatoes per plate.
- And international demand? Waffling.
Lamb Weston’s Q1–Q2 volumes fell flatter than a freezer-burned curly fry. That’s a brutal blow when fries are literally your entire personality.
2. Margin Mayhem: Costs Are Frying the Bottom Line
Picture this:
Your core ingredient (potatoes) gets more expensive.
Your energy bills spike.
You spend $300M+ upgrading ERP systems and factories.
Oh—and shipping costs are still high.
The result?
Lamb Weston’s gross profit dropped $135 million in one quarter. That’s not a drizzle of ketchup. That’s a full-on grease fire.
3. Too Many Fries, Not Enough Mouths
The fry market is oversaturated, especially overseas. New production plants came online just as global demand softened.
So now there’s a glut of frozen fries, and Lamb Weston is:
- Losing share
- Discounting product
- Watching inventories stack up like uneaten hash browns at a hotel buffet
Overcapacity isn’t just annoying. It’s profit-crushing.
4. Activists Are In the Kitchen
When your stock craters 50% and your earnings fall 67%…
You can bet Wall Street’s gonna call in the grown-ups.
Jana Partners (activist hedge fund with a ~7% stake) wants:
- A full board shakeup
- A performance overhaul
- Possibly… a sale of the whole company
That’s like Uncle Rico showing up mid-shift at Waffle House yelling,
“You guys ever think about running a football-shaped potato through that fryer?”
5. Management Whiplash
CEO change? Check.
Guidance cuts? Yep.
Confused investors? Definitely.
The company did beat Q3 earnings expectations recently—but when you’ve guided lower three times, even a beat feels more like, “Hey, we didn’t crash the truck this time!”
Can the Fries Get Crispy Again?
Maybe.
They’re:
- Slashing capital expenditures
- Cutting production capacity
- Looking to improve productivity
- And hoping potato enthusiasts bring back normal demand
If they pull it off—and maybe shake hands with a buyer—there could be upside. But right now, it’s a frozen fry bag in limbo.
Final Take: Lamb Weston = Cold Fries at the Bottom of the Bag
They used to be the MVP of the freezer aisle. Now they’re:
- Overcooked on costs
- Underdelivering on volume
- And actively fighting for relevance
If you’re craving reliable, crispy profits, you might want to let this one cool off before diving in.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis of the aforementioned stock security is in no way to be construed, understood, or seen as formal, professional, or any other form of investment advice. We are simply expressing our opinions regarding a publicly traded entity.
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